Future Predicted Gas Prices

[JanGeo]

Anyone thinking about the price of gas as the Memorial Day holiday approaches?

I have seen it drop for the Holiday weekend in past years . . . maybe the oil companies are doing the patriotic thing - need to get gas some gas soon (for the weekend) and wondering if I should wait until the weekend or not.

[101mpg]

I will not edit this post - look back to see if I'm right. Gas will continue to go up through about the 4th of July or so, definitely topping $4 in most of the country. It will start heading down until about the second week in November so that those currently in power can try to get re-elected.

Today is May 19, 2008. May 19, 2009 gasoline will be over $5 per gallon.

And the recession will hit in either April or October of 2009.

[fumesucker]

Depending on how you define "recession", it's already here..

The government has been playing so many games with the economic statistics for so long that government numbers are essentially useless for figuring out what is really going on with the economy.

[fumesucker]

We are very close to an economic "tipping point" where a lot of part time workers will find that it does not make economic sense to drive to their part time jobs.

If you are working and the exercise is a net money loss, then it does not make sense to continue to work at that job. $4.00 and above gas, combined with sub 20 mpg transportation and the long distances common in America will bring that economic point to many here in the near future if they are not at that point already.

I'm thinking that the ability to squeeze a lot more miles out of a gallon of gas may become quite valuable to many Americans soon.

[Kuripot]

Personally I don't think the world economy can sustain oil prices at this level indefinitely. IMHO the rise has happened to quickly and there's a bubble formed. I predict we see gasoline below the $3 mark again before the summer of 2009. India, Indonesia, and China have been subsidizing oil prices. Other countries have frozen the price of gasoline. They can't afford to continue to do that forever. When they stop, and gasoline goes through the roof in those countries, their economies will suffer significantly and demand for oil and gas will drop as it already is in the US and Canada. Thats when prices will come back down. I believe they will drop after the summer olympics when China cuts back on their subsidies but I'm not sure how much. It just depends on how long these governments can keep the price low in their countries.

[jamithan]

Originally Posted by Kuripot

Personally I don't think the world economy can sustain oil prices at this level indefinitely. IMHO the rise has happened to quickly and there's a bubble formed. I predict we see gasoline below the $3 mark again before the summer of 2009. India, Indonesia, and China have been subsidizing oil prices. Other countries have frozen the price of gasoline. They can't afford to continue to do that forever. When they stop, and gasoline goes through the roof in those countries, their economies will suffer significantly and demand for oil and gas will drop as it already is in the US and Canada. Thats when prices will come back down. I believe they will drop after the summer olympics when China cuts back on their subsidies but I'm not sure how much. It just depends on how long these governments can keep the price low in their countries.

I hope so man. I live in Alberta (ya that Alberta with the 2nd most oil in the world). Gas is like $0.11 in Iran or some crap. How do they get away with that and we pay $1.23 a litre ($4.67 a U.S. gallon = 3.8L). We actually think a $4.00 gallon would be great.

[caprice]

I noticed that gas prices do seem to come down near election time. Also Aren't gas prices subsidized here too? including where the military is patrolling oil shipping routes etc, (bla bla... it gets political, which wars we are fighting whether or not they are for oil) http://www.energyandcapital.com/arti...-gas-crude/461
Gas is actually $10+ per gallon

Now lets say they moved real price of gasoline from taxing citizens, to the pump, People would have a CHOICE of how bad they need it. People who use little or no gas, wouldn't be paying for others gas. If you use an average amount of fuel, there'd be no differnce

Then again the government spends much more than it brings in, so that skews the numbers. On the other hand, some day the bills are going to come due... and somehow we'll have to pay for the stuff the government has paid for in past years and/or they have to cut what they spend. Donesn't make a bright looking future for the economy, or fuel prices, IMO.

Comment on delivering pizza's and newspapers: It isn't profitable long term. Short term making money is an illusion. You are basically borrowing money out of your car, and will have to pay much of it back because of vehicle expenses. I used to average a 1000 miles a week. Still... including maintenance, an old paid off truck with 13 MPG is more profitable than a 25 MPG car with payments. The car is devaluing much faster that is getting paid, yet still needs almost as much maintenance.

[nlife]

Originally Posted by jamithan

I hope so man. I live in Alberta (ya that Alberta with the 2nd most oil in the world). Gas is like $0.11 in Iran or some crap. How do they get away with that and we pay $1.23 a litre ($4.67 a U.S. gallon = 3.8L). We actually think a $4.00 gallon would be great.

...actually, doesn't Russia have 40% of the worlds known oil reserves?

N

[opelgt73]

Originally Posted by jamithan

I hope so man. I live in Alberta (ya that Alberta with the 2nd most oil in the world). Gas is like $0.11 in Iran or some crap. How do they get away with that and we pay $1.23 a litre ($4.67 a U.S. gallon = 3.8L). We actually think a $4.00 gallon would be great.

Because the majority of Canada's oil is in the form of oil shale, or as I have heard it called "the tar sands". It is not not light sweet crude. Oil shale is much more expensive to extract and refine and only recently have plants been set up to extract/refine it as it has now become a profitable endeavor with crude being so high. Same goes for Venezuela. Both Canada and Venezuela produce crude but the vast majority of their "oil" is in the form of shale.

Actually the worlds reserve of oil is broken down almost in equal thirds, 1/3 being in Canada, 1/3 in Venezuela, and 1/3 in the middle east. The middle east has had an advantage in that it's large reserves are in the form of light sweet crude (or other heavier forms of crude). As the price of oil from the middle east rises it will become more and more attractive for oil companies to extract oil from the tar sands.

I used to work for a company that built power plants and refineries. I remember around 2005 my boss telling me that they were bidding on oil shale extraction projects in Canada. He told me the break even price per barrel was around $45. As it is now $120+ I think it's obvious that we will see more plants built there.

[civic_matic_00]

Originally Posted by opelgt73

Because the majority of Canada's oil is in the form of oil shale, or as I have heard it called "the tar sands". It is not not light sweet crude. Oil shale is much more expensive to extract and refine and only recently have plants been set up to extract/refine it as it has now become a profitable endeavor with crude being so high. Same goes for Venezuela. Both Canada and Venezuela produce crude but the vast majority of their "oil" is in the form of shale.

Actually "tar sands oil" is different from Oil Shale. Canada's oil come from tar sands, Oil shale is basically rock impregnated with oil and the US has the largest oil shale reserve in the world....but, it would be costly to harvest and I doubt that environmentalist would agree to do so.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale

Some analysts, along with the United States Geological Survey, draw a distinction between oil-shale resources and oil-shale reserves. "Resources" may refer to all oil shale deposits, while "reserves" is more narrowly defined as those deposits from which oil can profitably be extracted using existing technologies. Since extraction technologies are still developing, the amount of recoverable kerogen can only be estimated.[6][18] Although oil shale resources occur in many countries, only 33 countries possess deposits of possible economic value.[19][20] Well-explored deposits, which could be classified as reserves, include the Green River deposits in the western United States, the Tertiary deposits in Queensland, Australia, deposits in Sweden and Estonia, the El-Lajjun deposit in Jordan, and deposits in France, Germany, Brazil, China, and Russia. It is expected that these deposits would yield at least 40 liters of shale oil per tonne of shale, using the Fischer assay.[6][14]

A 2005 estimate set the total world resources of oil shale at 411 gigatons ? enough to yield 2.8 to 3.3 trillion barrels (520 km?) of shale oil.[2][3][4][5] This is more than world's proven conventional oil reserves, estimated to be 1.317 trillion barrels (209.4?109 m3), as of 1 January 2007.[21] The largest deposits in the world are found in the United States in the Green River basin, which covers portions of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming; about 70% of this resource is located on federally owned or managed land.[22] Deposits in the United States constitute 62% of world resources; together, the United States, Russia and Brazil account for 86% of the world's resources in terms of shale oil content.[19] These figures are considered tentative, as several deposits have not yet been explored or analyzed.[6][2]

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if companies are allowed to tap into the oil shale reserves in the US, it can drastically reduce oil prices but it may increase greenhouse gasses more though.

more information about Oil Shale and Tar sands:

http://ostseis.anl.gov/guide/index.cfm