Future Predicted Gas Prices

[smay665949]

The price of fuel has dropped but this doesn't mean we shouldn't stop working toward alternatives. We purchase 70% of our oil at 700 billion a year from foreign sources.

To become self-sufficient we need to
1. Drill anywhere there is oil (off-shore, Alaska, etc.) with consideration of the environment (Short-term solution).
2. Accelerate development of our natural gas recourses, convert more cars to run on natural gas and build refineries to convert natural gas to diesel fuel (Middle-term solution).
3. Build more wind farms (Long-term solution).
4. Build nuclear plants (Long-term solution).
5. Develop better solar technology (Long term solution).
6. Improve automotive technology (Hybrid, Hydrogen, Electric, etc.) (Long-term solution).
7. Build future roads to be fuel savings minded by keeping traffic moving. Some examples are - Use yield signs instead of stop signs (where practical). Better on and off ramps to all roads not just highways. Right turn lanes that don't require a stop. (Long-term solution).
8. More public transpertation.

Here is a plan to start what I have described but falling gas prices have even put some of this on hold. http://www.pickensplan.com/theplan

[theholycow]

Originally Posted by smay665949

The price of fuel has dropped but this doesn't mean we shouldn't stop working toward alternatives. We purchase 70% of our oil at 700 billion a year from foreign sources.

That's about right. In 2007 it was 66% according to the US DoE. Here's the breakdown, from my post on another forum:

Originally Posted by Me, elsewhere

If you think about it logically, that should be a very effective strategy.
- If OPEC is responsible for high prices then non-OPEC oil should be cheaper, so the cheapest gas you get may be non-OPEC
- Even if that's wrong, by buying the cheapest gas you can, you're still reducing their profit, and showing that price is important to you

Earlier in this thread, I said that middle eastern oil (aka OPEC) was responsible for only a small percentage of US oil supply. In fact, that's wrong. Here's some data that may be fact. It is crude oil supply numbers reported by the US Department Of Energy:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pe...im0_mbbl_a.htm
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pe...adc_mbbl_a.htm
2007 Total crude oil: 5,518,611 barrels
2007 US domestic produced oil: 1,862,441 barrels (~33.7% of total)
2007 Imported oil:3,656,170 barrels (~66% of total)
- OPEC - 1,968,765 barrels (~35.6% of total, ~54% of import)
- Non-OPEC - 1,687,405 barrels (~30.5% of total, ~46% of import)
-- Canada - 680,533 barrels (~12.3% of total, ~18.6% of import)
-- Mexico - 514,480 barrels (~9.3% of total, ~14% of import)

It's hard to format that kind of data for easy, efficient presentation using the vBulletin forum input box.

Anyway, in summary...OPEC produces 35.6% of the crude oil we use, which is certainly a major portion by anyone's standards, though not the as much as one might think. OPEC produces for us approximately the same amount of oil that we produce domestically for ourselves, which is a rather interesting tidbit.

To become self-sufficient we need to

You advocate doing pretty much everything that's known to work. Sounds good to me...but good luck selling the idea to the general public. All those things are ugly, scary, and/or expensive.

7. Build future roads to be fuel savings minded by keeping traffic moving. Some examples are - Use yield signs instead of stop signs (where practical). Better on and off ramps to all roads not just highways. Right turn lanes that don't require a stop. (Long-term solution).

Well, you know where that one will lead:

Here is a plan to start what I have described but falling gas prices have even put some of this on hold. http://www.pickensplan.com/theplan

You seem very concerned about money exiting the country when you talk about oil, but not so much when you cite the Civic GX NGV as a top performer in emissions without reminding the reader that buying it sends more money overseas than buying from a "domestic" manufacturer. I'm not sure how concerned I am about the whole concept, but if you are then it would make sense to mention that.

[Snax]

Perhaps you have seen something on "Black silicon" already, but it might change your mind about the practicality of other power sources in light of it's potential.

Be sure to check out the SiOnyx link too. It provides more depth to just how much of a leap forward this stuff is.

[theholycow]

You're preaching to the converted. It's the unwashed masses that won't allow it. These are people who would rather crash a truck-based SUV than arrive at their destination in a sedan. They would rather get their labia to look like those of a porn star than keep all the sensitivity. They'd rather have a big "masculine-looking" grille (while toting the kids to soccer practice or commuting to the office) on the aforementioned SUV than fuel economy. What makes you think they'll want solar, even when you make it seemingly unobtrusive?

[GasSavers_SD26]

Originally Posted by Jay2TheRescue

If that's the case why is diesel still almost $1/gal more than gasoline? You'd think the price would come down more. I can remember in the 80's diesel was cheaper than gasoline.

-Jay

EPA mandates of ULSD. Around 2002, a study said that it would add $0.60+ per gallon to the cost of diesel.

And diesel, in general, is taxed higher than gasoline. Only a few cents, but it all adds up.

[bowtieguy]

holycow,

your last post hit the perverbial nail on the head. our future economic stability hinges more on personal accountability and stewardship than new tech.

see...

http://www.daveramsey.com/
this guy was on foxnews today. i like his quote, "you are not the government, you MUST spend less than you make!"

also...

http://www.crown.org/
been listening by radio to them for many years. they are informative and caring.

[Snax]

Originally Posted by theholycow

. . What makes you think they'll want solar, even when you make it seemingly unobtrusive?

To this point I can only suggest that a matter of a generalized 'want' is less likely to play into the matter if the cost per kWh generated drops significantly.

Think about it, taking the exact same silicon wafers, slicing them 1/10th as thick, blasting them with a laser, and producing at least twice the power (probably much more) over current thin-film PV technology, at a fractional increase in cost. A PV array to power a single household's entire daily needs could be implemented at half the cost of current systems and require half the area to do it. Coupled with tax credits from the government, the 'want' to save money could quickly become the driving factor.

But it's still pie in the sky tech at this point. Only time will tell what comes available. It could very well end up like the Ovonics NiMH battery technology that Chevron has been sitting on for years for no other reason than to suppress it's proliferation. Let's hope that doesn't happen.

[bowtieguy]

Originally Posted by Snax

...the 'want' to save money could quickly become the driving factor.

good point, that is our primary reason for eco purchases.

i am reminded of something as i read an article in the orlando sentinel today. what would happen if the vast majority of consumers made informed choices in this regard? and what if all of us actually paid things off and saved more, much more?

certainly profits of oil companies, drug companies, car manufacturers, and such would suffer. the article stated a quote about "saving money hurts the economy."

[Snax]

I've heard it suggested by the director of the movie "Fuel" that the massive profits of the oil companies the last few years are actually working to subsidize the current recession in allowing them to drastically cut the cost of fuel with the hard times. I can't vouch for how true to life that really works out however. I.e., much of the multi-billion dollar profits of Exxon-Mobil could simply be going to the pockets of executives and shareholders. It's probably somewhere in the middle.

Regardless, the point could be made that if the oil companies continued to vaccum every last dollar they could for a gallon of gas, they would make the recession (and coming depression) far worse. Consumers would essentially shut down on their spending even more - including things like the purchase of new vehicles, contributing to the further financial woes of our domestic auto industry. Potentially leading to a collapse in domestic production capability that would require decades to recover.

I think the oil companies have seen that writing on the wall, but acted too late if it is their goal to prop up domestic manufacture of cars and trucks. Instead, we are now faced with potential collapse without corporate socialism to stop it.

[R.I.D.E.]

I posted EPA projections of a class 2 truck, gross weight 7400 pounds, with a city mileage of 66 MPG and highway of 50 MPG (not a misprint).

If a truck with a frontal area of 3.7 square meters and a CD of .34 can get 66MPG city and 50 MPG highway, imagine what at Corolla sized sedan could get for mileage.

The whole power generation and consumption infrastructure is obsolete.

Why solve the problem with more of the same crap. Its only a short term solution. Sure any sane person should realize that the US needs to get rid of imported oil, so use any simpleton short term solution you want.

If you really want to solve the core issue, focus your financial resources on the efficiency of every wheeled vehicle on the planet. Then you have the additional benefit of saving the environment for the same investment.

That is what I have been working on for the better part of the last decade and I know it is the solution.

Domestic production of energy keeps money in the US. Every dollar kept here means 10 dollars after the banking system does its magic. Thats trillions of wealth in the US each year.

But it takes a much more brave leadership to understand the legacy of our stupid waste of energy in every respect. 200 years ago people were much more conscientious of energy usage becasue they had to be. Today we use it like there is no tomorrow, and we may end up insuring that there is no tomorrow in the end.

The only way any sane person could rationally justify such complete ignorance, and the fact that we are trading in our childrens future, is to rationalize some rediculous short term necessity with fear and ignorance.

regards
gary