It will probably become more efficient as it breaks in further, maybe a little maybe, but I wouldn't have super high expectations of a big jump. I put 18K miles on my 2011 Hyundai Elantra Limited, and the mpg never really increased over that time significantly. I did about 60/40 mix of highway/city and averaged 29.9 overall. Which is close to the modified EPA estimates and just about at the Fuelly median. But when I looked back over my charts, there was never a noticeable jump at a certain mileage point, it was just pretty consistent. I think the Elantra can easily achieve its highway mileage, but the city mileage is not completely realistic on a regular basis.
The thing with any of these cars, is that the estimated MPGs are in perfectly ideal conditions, and dont reflect reality especially over the length of a year when you factor in weather, ethanol, temps, etc, as well as driving habits.
In the end i switched to a VW TDI Jetta, which gets better than the EPA, but I havent noticed a jump either as it breaks in.
You made a great point though. I think the Fuelly numbers, when I look at my Jetta and at the Elantra, are pretty spot on as far as the bell curve goes with my experiences. I am right at the midpoint on both. I wish i had looked at the Fuelly charts before buying the Elantra, I think I would have had a better and more realistic idea for what to reasonably expect from the car overall.
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