Trump and the Auto Industry

[ChewChewTrain]

If the CAFE standards are relaxed I predict...

American corporate business practice is quarterly earnings focused (i.e. shortsighted), GM will scale back their EV research. Kinda like a kid procrastinating writing their term paper.

Japanese business practice is long term, strategic focused.

The Japanese will forge ahead with EV R&D efforts, as they know it's just a matter of time before EV tech advances make ICE cars obsolete.

When that day happens, the GM executives that shirked EV research to sell ICE cars today will have retired leaving the problem for the new GM executives to deal with the problem.

[cuts_off_prius]

Update: Looks like Trump spoke with automakers in Detroit today.

The headlines:

Trump orders review of fuel economy rules

Trump fuel economy move sets up fight with California - ABC News

Trucks.com: What You Need to Know About EPA’s Plan to Relax Fuel Economy Standards

Trump administration will give one year to revisit fuel economy standards

CNET:

President Donald Trump, in keeping with his word to limit regulations deemed onerous, will have his administration revisit fuel economy standards that take effect through 2025.

Automakers will have until April 2018 to lobby for changes to the EPA's Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. President Trump delivered the news to a group of auto workers and executives outside of Detroit on Wednesday.

"These standards are costly for automakers and the American people," said EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt. "We will work with our partners at DOT to take a fresh look to determine if this approach is realistic. This thorough review will help ensure that this national program is good for consumers and good for the environment."

As the regulations currently stand, the feds want automakers to achieve an average of more than 50 mpg across their light-duty vehicle lineups by 2025. It is expected that a revisit of this target will see the number drop, although by how much is anybody's guess.

It's important to note that CAFE measurements are different EPA estimates, which you see on window stickers and on automaker websites. The CAFE requirement of 54.5 mpg is closer to 35-37 mpg in EPA numbers.

Automakers can currently purchase "credits" from more efficient automakers in order to meet CAFE targets. It's believed that Tesla makes a decent chunk of cash from selling excess credits each quarter.

[ChewChewTrain]

Trump likely knows this is a meaningless concession. By 2025, EV tech will have advanced so much that nobody will want an ICE-based car.

Currently, the EV market is red hot in China. As GM spends resources to prop up ICE cars, Chinese EV builders will learn to solve their QA problems and become GM's 2025 headache.

American business is quarterly profit focused. Today's GM execs will be retired by 2025. Why should they care about GM's future problems?

I read Mitsubishi maintains a 500 year business plan that gets updated every 6 months as new technology becomes manufacturable and cheap enough to produce.

[R.I.D.E.]

Going to look at a first generation Insight today with 156k miles. Owner is asking $1300, supposedly without major issues, runs and drives.

The issue as I see it is the residual value of the new generations of electric cars. I doubt the transition will be so abrupt as to occur in 8 years. Oldest brother thinks the cost of insurance for human driven cars will be the factor that clears the road of human driven cars.

Can an automated (driverless) car anticipate situations and pre-empt a catastrophe. In my case that ability has prevented accidents at least 100 times, situations where without that forward thinking ability there could have been a catastrophe that did not happen.

One time I was driving behind a school bus when a huge pine tree fell on the road in a high wind. The tree missed the bus by barely 5 feet. I had seen the motion, recognized the danger and stopped without incident. Actually had to move the pieces of the tree to continue down the road. Another several times I realized the car behind me was not going to stop and pulled off on the shoulder to prevent getting nailed in the rear end in a 1959 Corvette, a car that was notorious for having the rear cross member slice through the gas tank, with the resulting funeral pyre incinerating the helpless driver.

It's like being a fighter pilot in combat, situational awareness keeps you alive.
A drunk swerves into your lane, in a thunderstorm, at night, on a road where the
instinct to drive off to the right means you fall into a 16 foot deep vertical walled ditch being dug to replace the water main in the Florida Keys where the ground is coral rock.

Computers are not smart or capable of predictive actions. In the last scenario I took the only option that remained. I actually went LEFT, into a parking lot, praying I did not hit the telephone pole in same parking lot, praying the drunk did not swerve back into me at a combined 100 MPH when his Cadillac would have decimated my Alfa Romeo.

If you are trying to tell me that these scenarios are covered, predicted and prevented by a computer system, I think you are mistaken. Plenty of scenarios occur without being initiated by the other driver, so that argument is weak.

[R.I.D.E.]

For those of us with a surplus of experience, remember Reagan and Tip O'Neal? Two politicians with diametrically opposite views of what was best for the country. Unlike todays poisonous opposition, Reagan and O'Neil understood that the essence of Democracy is collaboration and compromise. In a divided political arena, you see Trump and Elijah Cummings, two extreme opposites of the political spectrum, sitting down together and discussing legislation.

Even the last Bush worked with the opposition. 44 just told them, We won, you lost, you get nothing, we get everything. See what it cost to be that way, about $40k per citizen and a complete reversal of the status quo.

[trollbait]

And Republican Congress members vowing to oppose everything 44 proposed before his first day had nothing to do with it?

[Draigflag]

Originally Posted by R.I.D.E.

Going to look at a first generation Insight today with 156k miles. Owner is asking $1300, supposedly without major issues, runs and drives.

The issue as I see it is the residual value of the new generations of electric cars. I doubt the transition will be so abrupt as to occur in 8 years. Oldest brother thinks the cost of insurance for human driven cars will be the factor that clears the road of human driven cars.

Can an automated (driverless) car anticipate situations and pre-empt a catastrophe. In my case that ability has prevented accidents at least 100 times, situations where without that forward thinking ability there could have been a catastrophe that did not happen.

One time I was driving behind a school bus when a huge pine tree fell on the road in a high wind. The tree missed the bus by barely 5 feet. I had seen the motion, recognized the danger and stopped without incident. Actually had to move the pieces of the tree to continue down the road. Another several times I realized the car behind me was not going to stop and pulled off on the shoulder to prevent getting nailed in the rear end in a 1959 Corvette, a car that was notorious for having the rear cross member slice through the gas tank, with the resulting funeral pyre incinerating the helpless driver.

It's like being a fighter pilot in combat, situational awareness keeps you alive.
A drunk swerves into your lane, in a thunderstorm, at night, on a road where the
instinct to drive off to the right means you fall into a 16 foot deep vertical walled ditch being dug to replace the water main in the Florida Keys where the ground is coral rock.

Computers are not smart or capable of predictive actions. In the last scenario I took the only option that remained. I actually went LEFT, into a parking lot, praying I did not hit the telephone pole in same parking lot, praying the drunk did not swerve back into me at a combined 100 MPH when his Cadillac would have decimated my Alfa Romeo.

If you are trying to tell me that these scenarios are covered, predicted and prevented by a computer system, I think you are mistaken. Plenty of scenarios occur without being initiated by the other driver, so that argument is weak.

You're not superhuman, your reactions are likely as fast or slow as any other person's, which is pretty slow compared to a computer, which can react to several thousand situations at once, not just one or two like a human. You avoided the above examples because you had time to, a collision occurs when there is insufficient time to react, or the human driver doesn't know how to react, or indeed over-reacts to the situation e.g. too much steering input to correct a skid creates a counter skid, too much braking causing a skid. A computer can easily make judgements in these situations, correct braking (such as ABS or ESP) and skids (ESP) and I'd imagine most people have been saved by a computer's reactions several times already without even realising it, ABS stopping wheels locking up, ESP keeping a car straight in icy/wet conditions etc, I know I have.

Cars will be wirelessly networked so they all know what's occurring around them, so instead of a human ploughing into a pile up in blizzard conditions, or coming around a tight bend where there's already a crash, the car will know traffic has collided ahead, and slow down a mile up the road perhaps. There are compilation videos on YouTube of Tesla's avoiding dangerous situations.

It's the elderly that will benefit the most from this tech, people aged 65+ will have less confidence, poorer eyesight, slower reaction times not to mention poorer anticipation, judgement etc than those aged 25-45 for example. This weekend I saw 3 or 4 instances of bad driving by the elderly, one woman doing 37 MPH in a 60 zone causing congestion, who then continued at that speed in a 30 zone, one guy pulling up at a junction who stopped one car length back so he couldn't see if there was approaching traffic, one guy constantly drifting over the lane into oncoming traffic, even on bends (assumed he was drunk before I overtook him) and one who when I went to overtake, drifted over the white line into my path, almost colliding with my car. I had to blast my horn, she had no idea I was behind her. All those situations would have been avoided by self driving cars. You have to remember an autonomous car has 360 degree vision constantly, not 180 in one direction with huge blind spots all around.

[ChewChewTrain]

Originally Posted by Draigflag

Regardless of what you believe about Global warming, you'd have to be pretty retarded to deny the fact that air pollution/exhaust gasses and particulate matter are toxic to humans and animals. We should be moving away from fossils regardless of any scientific theory, and whether global warming is natural or not.

Yeah. I agree, Paul.

Paul, your town doesn't look like it might have a McDonald's.

[frugalkoenig]

Originally Posted by R.I.D.E.

Going to look at a first generation Insight today with 156k miles. Owner is asking $1300, supposedly without major issues, runs and drives.

That sounds like an amazing deal, even if the car needs work. I understand there are limits on what sorts of engines can be made to fit into the engine bay. There's a lot of beauty in a light car with a simple and clean design.

Originally Posted by R.I.D.E.

Computers are not smart or capable of predictive actions.

That's true, but they also lack the ability to make ethical decisions. Speed and raw power can tip the balance in a chess game, but driving involves a continuing risk assessment that involves ethical competence. The terminator isn't a good chauffeur if the choice is to hit a baby carriage that might be occupied or a utility pole.

[ChewChewTrain]

Originally Posted by frugalkoenig

That sounds like an amazing deal, even if the car needs work.

Yeah. That IS a steal. I should know. I live in Oakland, California!