The Future of Cars and Energy / Newest Tony Seba Lecture

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In this video at 33:40, Elon Musk reports battery density is improving about 5% compounded yearly. That's why you want to be sure you're getting the newest technologically advanced batteries with your next EV battery replacement.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsixsRI-Sz4

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Nissan just made a major break through with regards to battery cell density, they may have increased it by up to 50%. Things constantly improve, and now and again a major breakthrough occurs. More info here

New research proves boost to battery development | Next Green Car

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Originally Posted by Draigflag

Nissan just made a major break through with regards to battery cell density, they may have increased it by up to 50%. Things constantly improve, and now and again a major breakthrough occurs. More info here

New research proves boost to battery development | Next Green Car

Gee, Paul. At this rate, if you wait long enough, you'll be able to replace your entire Insight battery with a AAA cell. But, the only problem is that the replacement will still cost thousands of $$$ to pay for all that research.

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Musk is talking about Li-ion batteries that are used in the plug in cars. Honda IMA hybrids use NiMH*. The chemistries are too different for a simple cell to cell swap; they have different voltages and amperage. The battery management, and maybe hybrid control, software would need to be rewritten to get Li-ion to work in an Insight.

NiMH is a mature battery technology. A couple years ago, BASF made a statement about how NiMH has potential from some lab tests, but nothing has come from it. The gen4 Prius NiMH pack has some slight improvement over the gen3 one, but the advancement is no where near what Li-ion is now seeing.

The prismatic cells used by Toyota are better at dissipating heat than the cylindrical ones in the Insight, but the slight improvement isn't worth the effort to adapt the pack and battery bay to the different shape when there are new replacement cylindrical cells are readily available, and even already assembled into sticks.

* The last model year, 2015, of the IMA Civic hybrid in the US used a Li-ion pack. I suspect swapping out in the entire hybrid system; ICE, transmission, and battery, might be simpler than trying the Li-ion pack to play nice with the rest of the Insight's system.

PS: the cylindrical cells are pretty much off the shelf NiMH C batteries.

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By the time people are ready to either repair or replace a battery, thanks to research development and cost scaling, it will probably cost no more than a routine service anyway. It will probably all be considered in the monthly payments etc, so people wont have a huge grey cloud hanging over their heads in 10-15 years wondering when the battery is going to die.

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Considering how most hybrid(w/o plug) batteries are going, a replacement should be viewed like a major engine or transmission repair. It might be required on an old car, but most likely the car will continue on without actually needing it.

The case is different with the IMA hybrids. Honda pushed the envelope too far, and cut corners when it came to the battery management system. It would allow the battery pack to be drained too much for long life. This was compounded by some driving styles with the manual transmission.

The Problem is mostly in the Civics and original Insight. Honda seems to have wised up with the Insight2 and CRZ. Can't say in regards to the Jazz, since we never got it in the US.

That said, the IMA issue isn't an issue with hybrids, but one any car can have when the manufacturer puts profits before quality.

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Futurist Ray Kurzweil, who has a record of reliably predicting new technology, claims sunlight provides 10,000 times the daily energy needs of earth.

Solar panel sales has been climbing 41% year-on-year. In other words, every two years the base of solar panel ownership doubles.

At this rate, Tony Seba says ALL energy needs on earth will be coming from solar by 2030.

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Doug, didn't Seba also so "experts" are nearly always wrong?

As I said before, the type of renewable energy will vary from country to country, over here we are doing very well with wind power, in fact in ONE month in Scotland, the windfarms provided enough electricity to supply 164% of Scottish households. Even the average figure for 2015 was 97% wind generated electricity. Solar is pretty popular across Europe, especially in Germany.

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Originally Posted by Draigflag

Doug, didn't Seba also so "experts" are nearly always wrong?

The context Seba made that statement was about industry "experts" denying that the incumbents were in any danger from outside disruption.

Paul, even with a diminished battery, since the Insight engine is always running does that mean you have unlimited driving range?

Also, have any of the Insight owners replaced their NiMH battery with Lithium?

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It doesn't seem like anybody has tried replacing the NiMH with Li-ion. It would involve reprogramming the battery monitoring system and charger, perhaps even a replacing the charger. The majority of chargers are chemistry specific.

Some have added batteries on for PHEV conversions. This add on pack is only charged up from the grid.