Latest Tony Seba Presentation About EV Disruption

[ChewChewTrain]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M27KECEL5Zo

Exciting times!

He's introduced at 19:00.

Click on the YouTube "gear" icon to watch this 40 minute lecture at a faster speed.

[SteveMak]

As much as I believe that eventually, humanity will shift to EVs (or some clean, non-oil transportation), I don't believe it'll happen as quickly as Seba says. A few of the factors I note include:

• While Seba and other EV fans claim that EV costs are lower than ICE, his math ignores the typically higher purchase price, and the frightfully high battery replacement cost. Both need to be factored into TCO (Total Cost of Ownership). In most cases, EV TCO is not offset by lower electricity (fuel) cost as compared to gasoline. At least not today.
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• Claims of "zero maintenance costs" for EVs, even when ignoring the battery replacement cost, has not proven out in reality. Tesla Motors, who is currently our best data source, has a 60% drivetrain failure rate in their Model S by 60,000 miles. Yes, Tesla is replacing that under warranty, but once the warranty expires, it's on the owner's dime. This also serves as a data point for a very high component failure rate for this specific vehicle. Or at least, a far cry from "zero maintenance."
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• Seb's often-cited "Moore's Law" reference, so far, has not translated to ANYTHING other than computers. It's a stretch to imagine that it might be applied to EVs. Seb talks as though that's a certainty.
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• We must remember that batteries are needed for EVs, and with Tesla having the only battery gigafactory (and not all of its battery production is being used in EVs), a little math says you'd need about 80 gigafactories' full capacity to supply the world's entire new vehicle production, assuming they're all EVs. There isn't any hint that we're heading in that direction, so the hope that all vehicles will be EVs within a decade or two seem like a huge stretch.
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• Imagine ramping up the Tesla battery gigafactory to full production, and then multiplying it by 80 so that enough batteries can be supplied for all new vehicles to be EVs. Tell me there's no materials shortage, such as lithium. Good luck.
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• Today's electrical power grid simply doesn't have anywhere near the required excess capacity to make the switch from gasoline vehicles to all EVs, and we're not building it out anywhere close to the rate we'd have to in order to meet that "all EVs in 10-20 years" vision. Not enough electricity? Not enough fuel for EVs. Dead end.

Engineers and reality suck when they get in the way of a great vision. Or we might say that "great vision" is not well grounded in reality.

And for folks who believe in miracles, or the "miracle of technology" and beliefs such as "We put a man on the moon, so we can put a man on Mars," my reply to that thinking is the same as the scientist who replied to that "man on Mars" assertion: "Just because we put a man on the moon does not mean we can put a man on the sun."

I believe EVs will come. I just don't believe it'll happen as quickly as Seb believes.

[Draigflag]

I didn't watch this video, but have seen similar presentations.

I believe it is happening quicker than expected, but only where government incentives, such as grants and infrastructure investment are a plenty, like in Norway for example where it's cheaper to buy an Electric car than a normal car. Even in the UK, pure electric car sales are up by 79% v's last year.

Manufactures that have been producing EV's for a long time are way ahead as expected, Renault for example have managed to make the Zoe the best selling EV in Europe, have doubled the battery capacity since it's launch a few years back, and have scaled the cost down so a new Zoe is the same price as a new equivalent sized car with an ICE. It's reached a point now where long term, it's cheaper for car makers to develop an EV than it is to carry on trying to meet strict emission regs. Volvo just announced they're scrapping diesel development and putting the capital towards hybrids/plugins etc.

Renault also developed a stretch of road that wirelessly charges EV's when driving on them, wireless charging is the next step in making EV's convenient, but a road that charges whilst you drive could be revolutionary.

Battery tech is also moving at an alarming rate too. Did you hear of the Israeli firm who have made a battery that can accept a full charge in 5 minutes? And it's non-lithium, uses organic material. As more money is invested in batteries, more major breakthroughs will be made like this. And lets not forget, public chargers are becoming more powerful too. A major supplier of charging points have just future proofed their latest charges, being able to charge at 400 KW, which would be able to fully charge a current Nissan Leaf in 7 minutes (if it were able too)

[R.I.D.E.]

A Nissan Leaf is now a 7 year old car, worth about 25% of the new purchase price after that $7500 rebate. Now one is going to replace that battery with a new one at that age, almost regardless of the odometer reading.

Forget any break even point, unless your fuel cost is exponentially greater than my $.033 per mile. Tesla uses MOST of the battery production globally for their current production in the specific size they use.

Barring a quantum leap in battery tech, probably not even Lithium based, the electric car will be hard pressed to ever completely replace other forms of propulsion in transportation devices.

Other technologies, particularly those where the power to propel is NOT contained within the vehicle itself, like vacuum tubes, and magnetic rail guns, will possibly replace certain segments of transportation. Elon Musk is involved in Evacuated Tube Transportation Technology. He realizes the future of this form of transportation could even replace air travel and you wont see any 400 passenger planes running on batteries anytime soon.

In the meantime my $1k per 30k mile fuel cost works out to about $45 a month. My purchase price has now dropped to less than 35 cents a mile. At 100 k miles it will be around 13 cents a mile. Taxes, insurance, operating costs are lower than many predict with oil changes costing me about $60 for 30k miles.

I don't have to worry about my car becoming basically worthless by the time it is 8 years old. In fact it COULD last me to 200k miles or the life expectancy of 2 electric vehicles, possibly even longer. In fact the property taxes on a Leaf would cover most of my fuel costs.

Engineers and Prophets grab the headlines. Accountants and reality stop them dead in their tracks.

[trollbait]

Without having watched the video.

The TCO of a BEV could equal that of a ICE car as early as 2018.
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/05/20...ly-profitable/

Maintenance costs fall under TCO. At least some portion of the motors replaced by Tesla were still working fine; they just developed a whine, and Tesla replaced them for customer good will.

I don't see progress that rapid, but the annual rate of battery cost drop has been faster than the 7% predicted would happen with the US federal tax credit incentive.

LG Chem's battery factory in Michigan has hit a gigawatt of annual production before Tesla's factory. Other battery and car companies are already investing factories for EVs. Investment is also going on in lithium production. Like petroleum, we'll find other sources. It exists at a near constant level in sea water, and the world is going to need more desalination plants for fresh water. Unlike petroleum, the lithium in batteries use can be recycled. There are other materials for use in batteries.

How many homes and businesses run their central air conditioning at the same rate during the night as they did during the day? When will most car charging take place. We'll need more capacity, but we also have a lot going unused during the night.

Ugh on wireless charging. It is too lossy for car use. For buses and other uses that have regular routes with stops to set up a charger, it might make sense.

Don't forget state incentives when looking at plug in depreciation. They bring the total to $10k on the Leaf in California, and it is more in Colorado.

[SteveMak]

Originally Posted by Draigflag

...Even in the UK, pure electric car sales are up by 79% v's last year... a stretch of road that wirelessly charges EV's when driving on them... [car] battery that can accept a full charge in 5 minutes?...

As with most things, sound-bites don't tell the whole story.

• Talking about a "percentage increase" while ignoring totals and market share is useful only when NOT making a comparison to other things. For example, if I tell you my annual income went up by 120% this year, you might be impressed. This is what the EV sound-bite does. However, if I tell you last year I made $110 and this this I earned $132, you'll see me in a different context, and if I report my household income is $250,000 and I earned $132, you might reasonable speculate that I'm a 12-year-old paper-boy. When we spotlight that EVs have been on the market for over 20 years and they still have less than 3% of the global automotive market share, and that in recent years, that share has been flat (in spite of the "Green" movement), then that reveals a different story than sound-bites do.
  .
• Although wireless recharging is all the rage with respect to mobile phones, to make it work on the scale of a car requires radio-frequency energy that is many orders of magnitude stronger. As far as I know, research has shown that humans are adversely affected by exposure to strong RF energy, although there hasn't been any research done with respect to long-term exposure. The wireless recharging of today might go down in history as the electronic age's version of DDT or Agent Orange -- we're just assuming it's safe, until we learn otherwise.
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• Batteries degrade more quickly the faster we recharge them. This was proven to be true with lithium batteries in mobile phones. It's likely true with EV batteries and quick recharging, such as the Tesla Superchargers. Nobody knows (see my next point)!
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• Batteries are the "elephant in the room" when discussing EVs. Even with the wealth of publicity Tesla and EVs in general are getting, try to find the information that tells you: (1) What is my likely average range to be, based on my driving style, climate, and traffic conditions, (2) How long can I expect my EV battery to last based on my conditions (e.g., living in Canada where you need a heater for 6 months of the year, and air conditioning for 3-4 months), (3) what will it cost me to replace my batteries, (4) How will my experience degrade as the batteries wear, before they are officially recognized as needing replacement? This discussion is eerily silent, and remember: We're talking about a vehicle's drivetrain, a major component, and a huge part of the ownership experience!!! [...Crickets...]

Please note that the facts and questions I raise do not condemn EVs of today, nor of the future. They just spotlight that the positive spin and sound-bites we get do not tell us the whole story, or paint an accurate picture as to what EVs are today, and how they will evolve in the future, both as a product on their own and as a transportation disruptor.

[Draigflag]

Many of the factors above all depend on personal circumstances of course. If you calculate battery cost V's fuel cost alone (not TCO but fuel savings) with today's battery prices, over 150,000 miles I would save about £20,000. Obviously batteries are still quite dear, so by the time 150,000 miles has been done, both fuel prices would have increased and battery prices decreased. Remember, whilst cost of ownership is important to some, it's not always a deciding factor. My running costs have doubled, maybe tripple when I factor in tyre prices, brakes etc, but for me I enjoy my car so it's worth it. Some people are willing to pay more initially if it means better performance, easier to drive, quieter, cheaper taxes, zero emissions and saves money in the long run, it's worth it.

Steve, the Tesla that has done 228,000 miles still had 94% of its capacity, and that's with frequent fast charging using Teslas superchargers, so 600,000 mile or 1,000,000 KM battery life wouldn't be unreasonable for heavy users. Tesla track every mile and battery cell statistic ever driven to calculate battery condition, life expectancy etc, if it wasn't going to work, they would know about it by now and so would we.

[SteveMak]

Originally Posted by Draigflag

...the Tesla that has done 228,000 miles still had 94% of its capacity, and that's with frequent fast charging using Teslas superchargers, so 600,000 mile or 1,000,000 KM battery life wouldn't be unreasonable for heavy users...

Assuming this information is accurate (I have nothing to say it isn't), then Tesla would provide an enormous benefit to the EV world at large if they would evangelize this, big time! It implies you'll never need to replace the batteries during the life of your car, and you'll likely never notice any battery degradation.

[Draigflag]

Originally Posted by SteveMak

Assuming this information is accurate (I have nothing to say it isn't), then Tesla would provide an enormous benefit to the EV world at large if they would evangelize this, big time! It implies you'll never need to replace the batteries during the life of your car, and you'll likely never notice any battery degradation.

In the same way most owners of ICE cars will probably never need to replace the engine, also a vital expensive component. As said, life expectancy will depend on a variety of personal/geographical circumstances as with any car regardless of drive train/fuel type etc. Tesla software is so intelligent it recognises battery condition with each charge, and adjusts the charge rate accordingly to preserve the battery condition, so a high mileage model will purposely take longer to charge.

[trollbait]

Originally Posted by SteveMak

As with most things, sound-bites don't tell the whole story.

• Talking about a "percentage increase" while ignoring totals and market share is useful only when NOT making a comparison to other things. For example, if I tell you my annual income went up by 120% this year, you might be impressed. This is what the EV sound-bite does. However, if I tell you last year I made $110 and this this I earned $132, you'll see me in a different context, and if I report my household income is $250,000 and I earned $132, you might reasonable speculate that I'm a 12-year-old paper-boy. When we spotlight that EVs have been on the market for over 20 years and they still have less than 3% of the global automotive market share, and that in recent years, that share has been flat (in spite of the "Green" movement), then that reveals a different story than sound-bites do.
  .
• Although wireless recharging is all the rage with respect to mobile phones, to make it work on the scale of a car requires radio-frequency energy that is many orders of magnitude stronger. As far as I know, research has shown that humans are adversely affected by exposure to strong RF energy, although there hasn't been any research done with respect to long-term exposure. The wireless recharging of today might go down in history as the electronic age's version of DDT or Agent Orange -- we're just assuming it's safe, until we learn otherwise.
  .
• Batteries degrade more quickly the faster we recharge them. This was proven to be true with lithium batteries in mobile phones. It's likely true with EV batteries and quick recharging, such as the Tesla Superchargers. Nobody knows (see my next point)!
  .
• Batteries are the "elephant in the room" when discussing EVs. Even with the wealth of publicity Tesla and EVs in general are getting, try to find the information that tells you: (1) What is my likely average range to be, based on my driving style, climate, and traffic conditions, (2) How long can I expect my EV battery to last based on my conditions (e.g., living in Canada where you need a heater for 6 months of the year, and air conditioning for 3-4 months), (3) what will it cost me to replace my batteries, (4) How will my experience degrade as the batteries wear, before they are officially recognized as needing replacement? This discussion is eerily silent, and remember: We're talking about a vehicle's drivetrain, a major component, and a huge part of the ownership experience!!! [...Crickets...]

Please note that the facts and questions I raise do not condemn EVs of today, nor of the future. They just spotlight that the positive spin and sound-bites we get do not tell us the whole story, or paint an accurate picture as to what EVs are today, and how they will evolve in the future, both as a product on their own and as a transportation disruptor.

What plug ins were available 20 years ago? The EV1? The forced market in one state that was ended through litigation, resulting in the technology getting shelved for a decade, is not the same as 20 years of continual ICE and transmission development. NiMH was a viable chemistry for EV car use, but patent sitting limited it to just non-plug in hybrids. Some of the first cars were electric, it could be said they've been on the market for over a century then.

My understanding is that all the wireless charging methods under development, including those for cars in motion, are based on magnetic resonance or magnetic induction. While there are possible health risks with strong magnetic fields, the ones generated by these system should only be extending a foot or so off the ground. A field larger than needed is just a waste of energy, and there is already the extra losses of wireless charging taking place.

I'm against wireless charging because it is lossy; for a phone or toothbrush, it is tiny, but these are literal cars we are talking about. The losses will add up. I can see niche needs for it, and the on road the systems might work for limited markets.

I've heard the guideline is that an automotive battery is 'dead' at 80% of its usable capacity. But it depends on what the owner or next one might be fine with in regards to the reduced range. For most people, when the battery is no longer good, it still as plenty of life left for secondary battery storage. That extra step between car and recycling will defray the costs of a new or refurbished pack for a car.

Automotive batteries aren't as abused as phones or tablets, but the cars are still too new to positively say they will be worry free to satisfy the majority of the public. The Leaf came out as a 2011MY. The current plug ins haven't been available for even a decade yet.

Originally Posted by SteveMak

Assuming this information is accurate (I have nothing to say it isn't), then Tesla would provide an enormous benefit to the EV world at large if they would evangelize this, big time! It implies you'll never need to replace the batteries during the life of your car, and you'll likely never notice any battery degradation.

Anybody remember when GM had touted 230mpg for the first Volt? The number was accurate for a methodology purposed by the EPA, but most people viewed GM as fools or conmen for saying it. If Tesla promoted this car's results, their detractors will hound the airways when on car has the opposite outcome. It still is impossible to say engines and transmission will never of production or design issues.

Tesla doesn't need to advertise at this point. People want their cars without it. Tesla just has to be pro active is keeping owners happy, and being upfront with facts when something negative, like the few fires, comes up in the news.