Quote:
Originally Posted by JockoT
I was listening to an oil expert this morning, talking about the increase in oil prices and where they thought they were heading. She said there was an infrastructure problem in the US in that the area where the shale oil is being fracked does not have enough pipeline capacity to handle all the oil that can be produced. With more capacity the shale producers could force OPECs prices down.
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They can ship it by rail, and likely are, but that raises cost. Then there is the refining infrastructure issue. Most of theis oil, because of current infrastructure is easier/cheaper to ship to the Gulf Coast. These refineries were set up for heavier crude that has more sulfur. They are inefficient at processing lighter and sweeter oil, so they only buy the shale oil* once it has been discounted by the producers. They may not be able to process a 100% load of it, and have to mix it with heavy stuff. Someone is building a refinery for light crude there.
Then at the beginning of the production chain there is another issue. Fracked wells aren't productive long term. To keep production up, new wells need to be drilled. Output from those fields is increasing, but output per well is dropping in the area.
*This term can be confusing. The industry refers to it as tight oil, which is conventional oil that can't be extracted by conventional means. Thus the need for fracking. The potential confusion of using shale oil arises because there is an unconventional oil known as oil shale.
It is rock layers that contain kerogen, a waxy, solid hydrogen carbon. We can dig it up and render a usable crude from it like tar sands, but for more effort and mess. The resulting crude is also known as shale oil.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale
Quote:
Originally Posted by LDB
Nope, we don't have diesel RAV and I'm not sure if there are any diesel Toyotas offered. Maybe in the pickup but I don't think so.
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Toyota did release a new diesel engine a few years ago, a 2.8L IRRC. I think it is in the Land Cruiser and a pick up in Asia. They are going with hybrids for nearly everywhere else, even Europe. There is talk that the next Rav4 hybrid will have a plug in version.
Mazda is going to try diesel again in North America with the next CX-5. If the SkyActiv-X lives up to the hype, the cars are going to stick with gasoline.
I'd like diesel to stick around, and emissions improve since I do think we might need it for the switch to renewable fuels. It is going to become, and remain, a minor player in personal vehicles though.
In much of the US, diesel costs more than premium gasoline. You some how have to convince people to pay more for the car when the station prices are broadcasting that. California is one of the places where diesel is cheaper, but they have great incentives to buy plug ins. Then you aren't going to convince people diesels are cleaner while asshats are still rolling coal.
Diesels could succeed in pick up trucks and SUVs here. Ford has a smaller diesel in the F150 now, and plan a hybrid for 2020. That will interesting to compare. GM has a 4 cylinder in the Colorado, and a six coming to the Silverado next year.
China is becoming the biggest car market in the world, and they are strongly pushing for plug ins and hybrids. they aren't going to embrace diesels as they are just cleaning up their air from the coal plants and diesels they have now.
I don't know India's policy stance on cars, but the people are choosing hybrids. About 10% of Camries sold in the US are the hybrid model. It's 90% in India.
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